Welcome to the Quakescanner and earthquake prediction blog.
I have decided to move regular updates for the app and any predictive forecasting and discussions to this new page. Be sure to bookmark and check back regularly. JUMP TO PREDICTIONS
Until I can find time to decide on a more structured way to curate both QS blog posts and earthquake update notifications I have opted to lump everything here. Updates are posted at the end of the page (Newest last) and other posts linked to across the page as and when I make a post. Bear with me, I know its a bit hodge podge but work comes first.
Quakescanner is now available on the Appstore click the link to download it now
Quakescanner has arrived 2 days ahead of schedule and is now available to download from the Appstore.
Quakescanner has a new Vimeo video channel
Quakescanner has a new Vimeo video channel, I will be using it to post regular videos on earthquake prediction techniques using Quakescanner and general stuff on past events and the conditions surrounding them. Check out the video channel here.
How to support my work on developing accurate earthquake prediction software
All the work I do on developing software for better prediction of earthquakes is funded by me and you the people who buy the Quakescanner app. Buying Quakescanner is the most simple and most efficient way of helping me continue my work. Without you, I cannot hope to achieve what I think is achievable. I want to make the technology available to as many people in the world as possible and if I could, I would do that for free. Unfortunately I cannot and so rely on your suport in the form of app purchases. PLEASE PLEASE share Quakescanner with your friends on social media or email by sharing or sending them this page.
Some earthquake predictions for April to June 2016
Date of prediction 8th April 2016
THESE ARE EXPERIMENTAL PREDICTIONS AND YOU SHOULD NOT USE THEM FOR PLANNING OR RELY ON THEM IN ANY WAY WHATSOEVER! I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR DEATH, LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE HOWSOEVER CAUSED AS ARESULT OF READING THIS ARTICLE OR ACTING ON ITS WORDS - WHICH I ADVISE YOU DO NOT
April 2016 is looking like an active month, particularly around the 9th-15th with the 13th/14th being particular candidates for Mag 6+ events.
Moving to May, the 13th and 20th +/- 1 day look like another period for major events in the M6+ range.
It is moving into June, particularly 1,2,3,4th of June that the prediction is significantly strong for a Mag7-8+ event as multiple gravitational tides have the most effect on solar and terrestrial activity.
So to take a punt on my own predictions the basics are :-
April :- 9th to 15th particularly the 13thand 14th
Experimental update to 9th April (Chile and Indonesia around 11am GMT)
May :- Mid May 13th and 20th
June :- 1st,2nd,3rd and 4th all high predicted likelihood of extremely strong seismic events
I will update this artice shortly please check back soon.
Update at April 9th 2016 02.30 GMT
Using experimental calculations a high likely hood of significant event for both Chile and Indonesia are strongly shown for the period 10:00 to 11:59 GMT. Increased risk in Eastern Europe is evident for the time period 16:00 19:00 UTC
Update at 13:40 GMT April 9th 2016.
Well, the predictions made in the early hours of the morning relating to Chile,Indonesia and later in the afternoon Eastern Europe appear to be at least getting close to accurate. Completing the trio of predictions for today a 4.3 just outside of Zagreb in Croatia Eastern Europe. A 5.3 in Indonesia and a 4.1 in Chile.
Update at 00:46 GMT April 14th.
In line with predictions for the 13th/14th April 2016 which indicated a very high likelyhood of a Mag 6+ event on those dates, news has just arrived that Myanmar suffered a Mag 6.9 quake at 13:55 UTC 13-4-2016 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36038029 . The prediction was made 8th April some six days earlier which demonstrates the potential of this app to predict large events with some accuracy. Full details of the Myanmar quake are available here.
Update 00:30 GMT April 15th.
Another Mag 6+ earthquake has struck Japan (see ABC News Link Here) and also Vanuata bringing the toal Mag 6+ events in the April 13th - 15th window to 3. This is in line with predictions made by the earthquake prediction app made on the 8th April for this period.
Update 09:27 GMT April 16th.
As indicated by the Quakescanner App, at 16:25 UTC a Magnitude 7.0+ quake hit Japan, making it the second in a row for the already troubled region. (USGS Website). This may be the end of it although Quakescanner still indicates significant risk for the 16th and 17th.
Update 02:27 GMT April 17th Ecuador M7.8
I mentioned yesterday that Quakescanner had indicated a high risk for 16th to 17th April. At 23:53 UTC April 16th a large 7.8 event hit Ecuador. The screen shot below shows the reading
Update 01:35 GMT April 19th
The upcoming Jupiter/Mercury opposition and the situation with Neptune / Mercury still give significant cause for concern as we approach April 19th/20th. From my own interpretation the likelyhood of a Mag 6 to Mag 7 in Japan and in particular once again Ecuador is very high towards the end of April 20th. April 29th is also a particularly significant risk date.
Significant risk for Mag 5.5+ Eastern Europe, Greece and Turkey 17:00 19th April 2016
Update 10:25 GMT April 19th
Experimental data analysis: Keep an eye on Northern California over the next 6 hours for M4+ activity
Update 12:25 GMT April 21st
Experimental data analysis: Potential risk for N Calif between 12:00 to 18:00 LA Time also India/Burma over the coming 4 hours
Update 01:04 UTC April 23rd
Experimental data analysis: Potential risk during the next 6 hours for Nepal and Afghanistan and Carribean regions
Update 00:08 UTC April 25th
Experimental data analysis: Increased risk of significant events for Nepal and Papua New Guinea regions over the 25th and 26th of April. The predicted activity for Afghanistan during the 23rd manifest as a 5.0 in Tajekistan close to the Afghan border.This region faces increasing risk of a major event over the coming 2 days. Risk in the South American regions of Chile and once again Ecuador appear highest at around 07:00 - 10:00 UTC 25-04-2015. Nepal and central to eastern ASEAN region also highest risk is predicted at around 09:00 UTC 25-04-2016.
Update 13:33 UTC April 25th
Experimental data analysis: Increased risk of significant events for California / Mexico during next 9 hours particluarly toward 15:00 LA LOCAL TIME
Moon Mars Update 01:56 UTC April 26th
Experimental data analysis: Increased risk of significant events for Nepal , Greece and Eastern Europe exist for the next 24 hours. The next 12 hours there is a significant risk for South America / Ecuador and Mexico particularly around 07:00 to 12:00 UTC in these regions. The general level of risk is generally high through the entire 26th April window. My opinion is that the 26th April will see at least one M6 to M6.5 event as the moon and mars oppose earth
April 27th 2016 STOP NEWS UPDATE... MEXICO 4.8 and 5.8 on successive days.
Ok, today at 12:55 UTC a 5.8 hit Mexico (see here). Yesterday at 12:05 UTC as predicted at that time a 4.8 hit the Mexico area. (see here) Yesterdays event, whilst smaller than expected, was on time and in the prediction window. What is most interesting is that the M5.8 event of today was 1 day 50 Minutes afterward, placing the moon in almost the exact same predicted positions identified as risk in yesterdays forecast some 11 hours before the M4.8 struck.
Update 12:55 UTC April 27th
Experimental data analysis: The (Mercury Venus) Uranus conjunction may cause problems today if Sun activity increases. Earths proximity to Mars and Saturn ahead of the group could drive solar winds earthward during the course of the day. Quakescanner identifies a hi risk from predicted solar activity for the 27th through the 28th April 2016. The Moon/Mars alignment is still cause for concern and so once again the risk for M6 events today is modertate to high particularly for the Asia regions, indonesia and Nepal.
Update 13:43 UTC April 27th 2016 (HI RISK)
Experimental data analysis: Vanuatu,Japan,Papua,Sumatra increased risk of M6.2+ event for time 19:30 through 22:00 UTC. Using experimental analysis this region has a 75% chance of large seismic event during this window. Be aware and be safe
Update 02:34 UTC April 29th 2016 (HI RISK)
In line with yesterdays predictions Vanuatu experienced a M7.0 earthquake overnight (see bulletin above). Paupua seeing a 5.8 also with a M6.8 off the Mexico coast. Sources indicate that filament eruptions on the Sun have increased in line with QS predictions (see images below) noting the RED SOL indicator that predicts a high chance of solar disturbance in particular magnified by several key planetary alignments. The 24 hours general synopis is for a 75% potential for M6.5+ events for 28th through the 29th.
I'm watching Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey through the middle of April 29th expecially after France was hit by a M3.9 in the early morning of the 28th.
Update 06:34 UTC April 30th 2016
The next update of Quakescanner is alomst complete an I hope to get it on the appstore within the next week. Users can expect to see the new machine learning enhanced Tital Modelling indicator (blue icon below). This additional function calculates solar tideas and stresses to a new imporoved algorithm which is monitored by a sophisticated machine learning routine that predicts when the forces might cause significant disruption in our star. So far the new indicator is provind a huge success, with less than 10% false positives within 1 day of predicted M6 or greater events. FYI, the image screenshot below shows that Quakescanner predicts at least a M6 even for May 10th (+/- 1 day), so keep your eye on the USGS to see if the app gets it right.
Update 1st May 13:20 UTC May 2nd-3rd and May 10th (Hi Risk)
Quakescanner get a new solar tidal forces display in the soon available update due to hit the App Store in the next few days. After a fairly quiet Mayday weekend, solar tidal forces are set to increase significantly according to the Quakescanners new improved dual mode tidal forces algorithms. May 2nd is particularly identified as a serious candidate for M6+ events. The last M6 on the 30th April in Vanuatu.
The likely hood of the first week of may being highly active producing multiple M6+ events is high to very high.
Looking back over April 14,15,16 and 28 the video demonstrates how tidal modelling identified significant risk on the days in question. Particularly the 16th which coincides with the huge 7.8 Magnitude that struck Ecuador.
Take note also the Extreme event warning for 10th May identified using QS's new extreme solar tides scan locking function.
Be sure to follow Quakescanner updates at http://www.visicomscientific.com/page/Earthquake-Blog and you can download Quakescanner and do your own investigation of planetary alignments and solar tidal forces against past earthquakes since year 2000 right through to year 2050.
Update 2nd May 05:17 UTC Ecuador / Japan (Hi Risk)
In line with yesterdays predictions magnitude intensity is rising with the first near 6.0 event just an hour ago making 5.9 in Indonesia. Quakescanner is forecasting this to only increas over the 2nd and 3rd May. Latest experimental forecast by mysef showing high risk around non 12:00 UTC for S.E Asia /Japan and also a serious risk alert for Ecuador and particularly Mexico in the 11:00 UTC to 13:00 UTC window 2nd May 2016. Fingers crossed that does not develop. A look at tye mean average intensity over 4.5 Magnitude for today 2nd May reveals that average intensity is currently at 5.2 which is a clear 0.2 points higher than the period 25th April until today, so if things continue as predicted the likeyhood of seeing several M6+ events is currently very high. (Some agencies are now upgrading the Indonesia quake to 6.0 see latest news here)
Update 8th May 06:41 UTC
Solar tidal predictions indicate a potentially highly increased risk of significant seismic activity of over the 8th May to the 11th May 2016. After a relativley quiet spell in the last 4 days, Quakescanner is forecasting a significant increase in activity as planetary and tidal forces exert increasing stress on our Sun combined with a Uranus - Venus opposition this week.
Update 8th May 2016 15:29 UTC
M5.9 Earthquake has been recorded in Mexico. The event is in line with Quakescanner forecasts issued this moring at 06:41 UTC. "Solar tidal predictions indicate a potentially highly increased risk of significant seismic activity of over the 8th May to the 11th May 2016."
Update 18TH MAY 2016 11:21 UTC
Quakescanner is indicating significant solar tidal effects over the coming few weeks. 18th May 2016 is indicated at 90% chance of significant M6+ events. UPDATE 18:30 UTC Ecuador has now seen 2 6.7 Mag _+ events today) The pattern is forecast to continue with the 21st May, 23rrd May of particular interest. The rest of the month is as predicted previousy looking to be highy active with the possibility of major events in early June.
Looking forward to May and June 2016
May has the potential to be one of the most active and destructive months of 2016. The 6th - 7th May is a day to watch as Mercury, Earth and Moon make full opposition however, late May and particularly first week of June are high to very high risk for M7 events. Whatever the final outcome, May is likely to see more than its fair share of medium 5.5-6.0 activity but the particular worry is around May 28th to June 4th. I will add more to this as the time approaches.
Update 5TH JULY 2016 04:35 UTC
Quakescanner is indicating significant solar tidal effects over the coming few days. 5th July 2016 to 7th July is indicated at 99% risk of significant disturbance. A sudden drop in solar tidal force over 5th/6th July is followed by consecutive pulses of strong tidal activity upto the 9th July. These patterns often coincide with significant seismic activity.
Update 12TH AUGUST 2016 04:55 UTC
Yesterday I posted the short article (below bold italic) on FaceBook warning that increased activity was on the way on the run upto the 16th August 2016, with QS showing an increased 99%! risk of 6.0+ Magnitude #earthqakes for today 12th August 2016. This morning, I got chance to update the Quakescanner earthquake prediction blog page. This morning has seen the 2 two largest earthquakes since the 4th August. A 7.2 and 6.1 Magnitude striking regions around Fiji. Once again Quakescanner appears to have predicted this increase in activity and correlated it to gravitational distortions predicted using its algorithms.
So after the Mag 5.1 earthquake hits California, I'm looking at what Quakescanner has lined up for the month ahead.
Having been tied up with work I have had little time this month to take a look back over July to see how Quakescanner performed at predicting the most significant size earthquakes across the world. The results are really quite amazing, with the quakescanner indicators lighting up with predictions of serious tidal anomalies in the 24 hours leading up to earthquakes on the 21st, 25th, 29th July and the 4th August. The readout giving a strong heliocentric anomaly for midday 9th August + 24 hours , so falling into the direct window of large 5.1 earthquake that struck Upper Lake California in the early hours of the morning 10th August.. Look to the rest of August I am seeing some serious indications of anomalies upto and shortly after the 16th August and so if the past accuracy of Quakescanner is anything to go by, Mid/Late August is on track t produce some pretty big 6.0+ Magnitude earthquakes - "or at least thats the theory!"
All for now, be safe. :)
High Risk of 6.0+ Mag Earthquakes in the run up to 16th August 2016
Update 21st AUGUST 2016 05:55 UTC
More unsettled conditions as we move towards August 26th with significant risk of 6+ Mag events on all days.
It has been a highly active few days with earthquakes reaching 7.4 Magnitude. Quakescanner has been particularly accurate for the last 2 weeks predicting some significant tidal distortions that resulted in aftershock events reaching mid 6's.
I have not had a great deal of time to update the blog but did manage to update Twitter with the most significant event forecast updates. Checkout the Quakescanner Twitter feed at @Quakescanner for details of these.
The next few days as we are already starting to see is forecast to have a high potential for large magnitude activity. On the 26th August a large tidal distortion seems to be the highlight of the month, but as we already know, effects of these disruptions can swing either very low or very high on the day. What is more likely is the day before or after the distortion will produce the most severe activity.
With this in mind and looking to the Quakescanner readout for the next few days, the general prognosis would be a significant increase in 6.0+ magnitude earthquake events interspersed with short term very quiet periods.
Update 24th AUGUST 2016 06:35 UTC ITALY UPDATE
Despite early success, earthquake location accuracy now a serious focus of Quakescanner project
This mornings tragic news of a 6.2 Magnitude earthquake in central Italy once again reminds us of the devastating power of mother nature and for me brings the matter of earthquake early warning front and centre. Whilst the current Quakescanner system clearly shows a high degree of accuracy in determining global risk factors for high magnitude earthquakes, one thing it currently does not provide is location data. Being able to predict the exact or even probable location of a high magnitude earthquake has the potential to save many lives and for me personally that is why Quakescanner was created. After 8 months of public testing and prediction, Quakescanner has predicted periods of serious earthquake activity with remarkable accuracy, including the Japan and Ecuador events of March/April and May. If that can be coupled with location prediction then the potential to save lives is enormous. This must be a primary focus of the Quakescanner project.
Update 2nd SEPTEMBER 2016 06:35 UTC AUGUST REVIEW
How did Quakescanner #earthquake forecasts perform during August?
The image below is a quick overview of the number of 5.5 Magnitude earthquakes through August 1st to September 1st 2016. The orange markers show dates forecast by Quakescanner to produce significant gravitational tidal distortions, with the blue bars being the number of 5.5 Magnitude or greater earthquakes by date.
Though by no means perfect, Quakescanner produced a number of significant features that follow the quiet periods, with the majority of 99% forecasts falling on or within 24 hours of a major earthquake event.
With 39 earthquakes over 5.5 Magnitude in August, Quakescanner predicted 16 of them exactly to the day, with only 3 false alarms for the entire month. That represents 41% accuracy in M5.5 prediction, with 33% false alarms. This is the worst case portrait of the results as QS warnings run for a +/- 24 hour period, by which measure the false alarms represent < 25%
A significant feature of the Quakescanner model is yet again its strong correlation with periods of quiet and the general increasing trend for activity. Between the 1st August and 12th August Quakescanner predicted only one tidal distortion with enough strength to contribute to seismic activity. This is borne out in the figures from the USGS who reported 3 events on the 4th and 5th of August, just 24 hours after the distortion was forecast.
Long Range Earthquake Forecast and Solar Outlook for September 2016 Issued 09/03/2016
Following a high activity end to August, September opened with a bang as a 7.1 magnitude quake struck off New Zealand on the 1st and subsequently two 5.6 magnitude events in the California and Oklahoma USA on the 3rd.
The general synopsis: Earth is currently entering the front of a turbulent region as it exits a Neptune induced current and into more stable space on the 9th of the month. After a high activity start, things settle until the 9th then after the 22nd the risk of significant activity is very high on all days.
Weekly outlook: Several small distortions are present until the 9th making the transit bumpy with some tidal variance giving increased risk on the 4th. The 9th to the 13th shows significant distortions, with Magnitude 6+ possible in all active regions especially the 9th 11th and 12th though tidal aftershocks could extend the effect a further 24 hours. Mid month the 16th 20th and 21st look favourable for M5-M6 events also. It is the last week of September 23rd to 30th that are the most worrying with major tidal distortions on several days in particular the 26th +/- 24 hours indicating 99% probability of significant seismic activity.
Long Range Earthquake Forecast and Solar Outlook for September 2016 Issued 09/11/2016
Finally managed to get time to update! : Quakescanner is forecasting Earth to be moving into a very rough period for the next 4 days as it exits a turbulent frontal system that was forecast in the 3rd September bulletin (see bulletin : http://www.visicomscientific.com/page/Earthquake-Blog#U03092016A). That frontal system was forecast to produce significant M6 activity between 9th and 11th September. The forecast was upheld as the period produced the Peru 6+ Magnitude quake and yesterdays tragically fatal 5.9 Tanzania event (upgraded by USGS from 5.7) that has claimed many lives. My general opinion is that the occurrence of 6.0 magnitude to even 7.0+ earthquakes is likely to increase effective immediately for the next 4 days. I mentioned in the bulletin that later in the month things are set to get worse, and I will recap on the situation past the 16th September in a later post. So, to sum up the next 72 hours are a worrying period if the forecast distortions follow previously forecast accuracy.
Long Range Earthquake Forecast and Solar Outlook for September 2016 Issued 09/16/2016
#Earthquake update: Quakescanner is predicting an explosive end to September! After a turbulent start to the month, with the first week producing several significant earthquakes either side of a QS forecast tidal anomaly on the 4th of September, we saw a brief respite unit the 9th/10th as a series of significant earthquakes were recorded in the USA, Africa and Macedonia. These events coincide with QS increased risk % warning which shows a heightened period of risk from the 9th to the 14th of the month. As we move into the last half of September the QS prediction is for a very active end to the month as a string of tidal anomalies are predicted from the 19th onwards. Particularly the 25th, 26th and 27th in my opinion have the possibility to see events into the high 6 to low 7 magnitude. Time will tell. As always, you can get access to QS yourself via the iOS app available from iTunes.
Solar activity forecast and Quakescanner results. Issued 09/19/2016
Predicting the Sun's behaviour is vital to a complete model for earthquake forecasting. The Sun is king of the solar system and it is no surprise that its behaviour has a huge effect on Earth -- and indeed the entire solar system. The recent announcement of X-Ray emission from as far out as Pluto (some 3.6 billion miles) do little to take away from the postulation that the Sun effects objects far past the edge of the visible solar system. A key component of Quakescanner's approach is the modelling of solar activity. To be more specific gravitational tides and eddies that may induce significant solar disturbance leading to sunspots and X Class solar flares, solar wind and plasma storms. The attached image shows the most recent solar data from The Royal Observatory Belgium with the days of the same period predicted by Quakescanner's gravity modelling algorithms to be most likely to produce significant disturbances in our star. As the graph shows, over the 30 day period, the QS predicted days match the most significant periods of deviation and intense activity recorded and predicted by the ROB. This is not a new discovery for me, the model performs similarly for decades and drives the QS tidal forecasts and daily earth threat predictions. The more I can make this aspect of the app accurate the closer it moves to being a reliable source of information that can become an intrinsic part of earthquake and climate forecasting!
Long Range Earthquake Forecast and Solar Outlook for October 2016 Issued 10/01/2016 #California Bulletin
All eyes focus on California this weekend as USGS issue California Earthquake Advisory. The string of earthquakes in Southern California from 26th through 27th of September fit perfectly into the Quakescanner Long Range Earthquake Forecast issued on 3rd September 2016. Quakescanner is forecasting that the period of increased activity that began in the last week of September will likely increase with peak activity (in distortion terms) around 3rd October with isolated high risk on 6th October. The first half of October is predicted to be highly active with a number of tidal distortions continuing until the 6th. Mid month from October 16th the risk forecast increases particularly 22nd , 26th,27th and 28th of the month. A further update will be issued later in the month so please check back for that.
Long Range Earthquake Forecast and Solar Outlook for October 2016 Performance Review Issued 10/17/2016
In the 1st October long range forecast I had stated that Quakescanner was forecasting tidal distortions from the 16th (see previous bulletin above) This forecast was based on the indicated arrival of 3 distortions starting on the 15th of the month and lasting until around the 20th. Thus far that forercast is accurate. Today the 17th saw of the largest earthquakes in weeks strike Papua New Guinea and China, at 6.9 and 6.4 respective. The activity began on the 15th with the first 6+ magnitude earthquake hitting Papua New Guinea. The trend in increased large seismic activity upholds the forecast as the last 2 days has seen the highest number of 5+ and 6+ magnitude events for over a month.
Long Range Earthquake Forecast and Solar Outlook for October 2016 Performance Review Issued 10/21/2016
Below is an updated mid month review. I have issued the update as the forecast activity from the 16th has now well and truly arrived, with the period 15th-21st October producing more 6+ Magnitude earthquakes than any cnsecutuve period since late September. There is still 10 days of the month to go and the forecast is for larger events to increase over this time particularly in the last week of October. Todays 6.2 Magnitude earthquake in Japan comes as QS forecast a 99%! confidence in 6+M events for today and was issued because of forecast sharp relaxation in a dominant tidal distortion that began on the 16th.
Long Range Earthquake Forecast and Solar Outlook for November 2016 Issued 11/01/2016
The long range earthquake forecast for November 2016 : issued by Quakescanner on the 1st of November 2016 at zero seven twenty three hours Western European Time and valid for thirty days......
Warnings:
There are warnings of increased seismic activity forecast for November 1st, 2nd, 6th, 9th, 12th, 14th 18th, 25th, 26th,27th and 29th of the month......
Significant activity forecast:
There are forecast warnings for significant activity on November 1st,2nd,6th,7th,9th,12th,14th and 18th of the month......
The long range earthquake general synopsis for November 2016:
A high risk start to the month particularly the first 3 days. The risk of high 6 mag and even 7 mag events is high during the first and last week of November. A series of tidal distortions forecast for the 6th to the 9th of the month have the potential to allow large events to develop. Solar activity around the 12th is forecast to rise with a solar warning in place for the 12th and 18th. The last week of the month has the potential to be a highly active.
This forecast is part of the experimental publicly available Quakescanner Project forecasts and is prepared from data modelling derived from Quakescanner models. It's purpose is accuracy checking of model forecasts and is not intended for public use as a mean to determine earthquake risk. It's intended use is solely academic. The reader is advised to consult relevant official climate and seismic forecasting in their region and should not rely upon this forecast for anything other than for the purpose intended.
This forecast is available an an audio only version on Youtube at https://youtu.be/926lTz8kVdU or on the embedded player below.
The long range earthquake forecast for December 2016 : issued by Quakescanner on the 30th of November 2016 at nineteen hundred hours Western European Time and valid for thirty one days.
Warnings:
There are warnings of increased seismic activity forecast for December 7th, 14th, 23rd, 24th 25th, 27th and 30th of the month......
Significant activity forecast:
There are forecast warnings for significant activity increase on December 1st , 7th,8th,10th,11th,13th,14th,19th,23rd,24th,25th,27thand 29th of the month......
The long range earthquake and solar system weather general synopsis for December 2016:
A series of tidal distortions forecast for the 7th to the 10th of the month have the potential to allow large events to develop.
Later in the month, around the Christmas week another distortion forecast to arrive on the 27th plus or minus 24 hours indicates that Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day carry a high risk of significant seismic activity. The solar activity which peaked in late November is forecast to fall until the 4th of December with a chance of increased activity 4th to 7th , 13th to the 17th and the 23rd of the month until 28th with a solar storm warning in place for the 13th, 19th and 29th of December – plus or minus 24 hours.
This forecast is part of the experimental publicly available Quakescanner Project forecasts and is prepared from data modelling derived from Quakescanner models. It's purpose is accuracy checking of model forecasts and is not intended for public use as a mean to determine earthquake risk. It's intended use is solely academic. The reader is advised to consult relevant official climate and seismic forecasting in their region and should not rely upon this forecast for anything other than for the purpose intended.
Long Range Earthquake Forecast and Solar Outlook for January 2017 Issued 12/31/2016
The long range earthquake forecast for January 2017 : issued by Quakescanner on the 31st of December 2016 at zero eight hundred hours Western European Time and valid for thirty one days......
Warnings:
There are warnings of increased seismic activity forecast for
1st,8th,17th,19th,23rd and 25th of the month......
Significant activity forecast:
There are forecast warnings for significant activity increase on 1st,5th,7th,8th,13th,17th,18th,19th,23rs,24th,25th and 29th of the month......
The long range earthquake and solar system weather general synopsis for January 2017:
A high frequency of sporadic large magnitude events seen in late December is forecast to continue though the first half of next week with high to moderate average risk on the 1st through 4th of January. A complex system of minor distortions from 7th through 11th is forecast to increase activity especially around the 8th and 9th of the month. Earth enters a predicted turbulent distortion front around the 17th which dominates the forecast until the 20th followed by a second front on the 23rd.
The solar storm reported by NASA on the 29th/30th of December was inline with last months long range forecast warning of solar storm for the 29th December. Earth directed solar activity funnelled by the recent mercury passage is predicted to increase the risk of earth directed effects around the 4th January. Solar sunspot activity is forecast to be most active from the 10th to 22nd of the month.
This forecast is part of the experimental publicly available Quakescanner Project forecasts and is prepared from data modelling derived from Quakescanner models. It's purpose is accuracy checking of model forecasts and is not intended for public use as a mean to determine earthquake risk. It's intended use is solely academic. The reader is advised to consult relevant official climate and seismic forecasting in their region and should not rely upon this forecast for anything other than for the purpose intended.
When Will California See The Next "Big One" Earthquake
There is a lot of doomsday articles to be found on the Internet regarding California “dropping off the map” because of a super earthquake. Whilst much of this can often be found to be nothing more than speculative hype and even religious prophetic in nature, there is always the risk that California will suffer a devastating earthquake. I have written several short articles on the relationship of strong earthquakes and planetary tidal gravity in the past but I have purposely stayed away from making predictions. Partly because the technology that I develop and employ at QS project is in fact non geographically specific (rather it forecasts Earth-wide threats at present) and secondly because I don't believe that screaming “super quake will destroy LA” is helpful AT ALL.
That said, USGS, many seismic experts and myself all agree that California is about due for a large event. My most recent postings on gravitational distortion modelling ( See article here ) has shown that the modelling techniques use by Quakescanner match solar weather satellite measurements by NASA and ESA to a high degree of accuracy. Using these tools I ran the numbers for the coming year and find that both statistically (by time and frequency of events) and by tidal modelling, we are entering a high risk phase for California. I wont say I can say exactly the day or size, thats just not realistic, but taking a look through the data (exact for July 2017 below) I would say that from mid 2016 until Dec 2017 California should be at least aware of the statistic risk. The modelling for 2017 particularly indicated scores of extremely strong gravitational tidal anomalies and based on past forecast performance and especially now with recent events where over 200 quakes in Southern California triggered a USGS advisory, I would say its better than even money that the region will see at least significantly higher than average activity over the soming 12 months.
A look back at the Solar Geomagnetic Storm of March 1989
Looking back at Quakescanner prediction for the March 1989 geomagnetic storm that took out much of Quebec.
EarIier today I was asked a question regarding Solar storms and OK, so the curious side of me thought what did the models predict for the 1989 storm that wreaked havoc in Canada and the US to some extent.
The images are readouts from the QS display. BTW, since the latest update you can now wind back time to 1933 :) Anyway looking at the readout I noted that QS was predicting a MAJOR solar event for the 9th of March, which according to all official records was the source of the storm that hit Earth on the 13th March around 2 am EST. This Wikipedia article has the low down on the storm and the scale of the problem. [click here to read article]
Personally I was excited that Quakescanner predicted major Solar disturbances for that day!
Above QS indicates 98% risk of MAJOR SOLAR EVENT (blue light + RED SOL)
A brief video of the prototype earthquake prediction app
The development of the app is going really well. I have added some more video and screenshots above. The instant annual scan makes it very easy to map a whole year in a few seconds, and I have added sensitivity filters to allow the user to filter events by predicted strength. I am hoping to have it in the store before May. Keep checking back for latest info.
Update 19th April 2016 - App is now looking like being available by 25th April, check the app homepage for news or drop me an email if you would like to be notified as soon as it is available on the Appstore.
