All the latest data, forecasts and mission results from the Quakescanner Earthquake I Mission! Earthquakes are one of the most powerful and destructive natural forces on earth. Every year they claim 100's if not 1000's of lives globally. Forecasting earthquakes is notoriously difficult and despite millions of dollars of research annually, the ability to forecast them is still far from a reality.
Mission Update
The mission is now complete and has demonstrated the worlds first accurate six month earthquake forecast using planetary and space-time distortion modelling. The final paper is under submission and futher information will be released shortly. Pre-print version of the paper is available on the link at the bottom of the page.
Welcome to Quakescanner Mission HQ
There has been a long running argument as to whether or not the planets of our solar system have any effect on the number and size of earthquakes. Generally science says “they do not” but it is far from a clear divide. Many scientists , as do I – believe they must, “even if the mechanisms of how are not understood”. The main argument against is that gravity's affect falls away with distance according to the inverse square law. That means simply, that using Newton calculations of gravity and tides – there is no way planets can affect earth. This has been the de-facto argument of science for over 50 years.
For me the problem is what we don't know can literally “kill us”. Science hasn't even got a single working theory of what gravity actually is let alone how it is created and from what. By my estimation there are several plausible ways in which the planets can affect earth without breaking the obvious observational characteristics of gravity. The most likely place to look is at space-time fabric itself. Space fabric is the stuff of space-time, the actual nothing ness from which gravity emerges. Yes – I said “emerges”. Why? Because there isn't a box of gravity conveniently sat in earths orbit! We can't dig it up, it is just “not there”. If gravity emerges from the space-time fabric instantly as earth barrels through space, then it is not possible that changes in the density of that fabric might change the way gravity emerges? I think yes and this mission is to test that theory by practical methods.
Moral, Financial and Social Considerations:
Earthquake forecasting is a contentious and emotional subject. People die, and often billions of dollars are lost as a result of major earthquakes. Trying to count the cost of earthquakes as financial terms is clearly not OK, but what value is life? If you take an umbrella to work because your iPhone tells you 80% chance of rain but it does not rain, the worst case is you took an umbrella for nothing. However what do you do if you are told “there is an 80% chance of earthquake today”? Do you evacuate a city? Do you not goto work that day? The costs are literally incalculable.
Do these moral and financial issues mean that we as a scientific community, as human beings and as a species should not even try? It would seem so. Science seems unwilling to bend, in fact there is good argument that disasters are “good for business” for some sectors. This makes the endeavour to solve the puzzle increasingly financially “unviable”. You may ask “but science says no, so why are we having this discussion”? Well, in 1912 Alfred Wegener a German meteorologist put forward the theory of “Continental Drift”. He claimed that the earth's continents were actually moving around and of course that is highly significant to earthquakes. The problem was that in 1912 none but a handful of scientists took him seriously. He was chided and dismissed regularly. It was not until the 1960's and the space age that GPS and other technology could actually prove his theory correct. Ironic that the most significant geological discovery of the century was dismissed as “crank theory” for almost 50 years by the very scientific discipline that today says “planets don't affect earth”.
Just to highlight the absolute confusing information being issued by the scientific community I quote from the Max Plank Institute for Solar System Research website (link here) : “The Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure (SEIS) is part of the scientific payload of NASA’s InSight mission. Landing on Mars in 2018, SEIS will be the first European seismometer on another planet. The instrument is capable of recording ground motions of a fraction of 0.001 mm over a broad frequency range between 0.001 Hz and 50 Hz. In this way, it can capture signals from marsquakes, meteorite impacts, local events like dustdevils or landslides, and even the tiny tidal deformation of Mars induced by its moon Phobos.”. The Insight mission, which is hoped might answer “a number of scientific questions” appears to recognise that Phobos may cause planetary 'deformations'. Whilst I personally wait with baited breath on the outcome of the mission, it is interesting to note that the apparent recognition that Phobos might induce 'structural' deformations in the entire planet, up to date NASA and the larger proportion of seismic science has been generally opposed to such a suggestion.
Such continuing confusion about what is theory and what is fact only convince me further that the moral imperative is to continue to try, to explore science, theory and experimentation in the hope that one day we can identify these event happenings accurately enough that lives can be saved – even 1.
Realtime Mission Clock - MISSION ENDED 31/01/2017
The Mission:
Quakescanner Mission I (QMI) is a six month mission that seeks to understand and model the affect of gravitational forces and space fabric distortions on our planet, not by changing gravity science but by modelling space (from which gravity emerges) itself - space-fabric! Using new mathematical models of the solar system that treat space like a special kind of liquid called "superfluid", the QMI project is forecasting the days it identifies as most at risk to determine if the model can be used to bring us a step closer to understanding what non terrestrial factors contribute to these deadly events, and more importantly if they can be predicted.
Objective:
The mission objective is justifiably specific. By using a computer model of space fabric to create an earthquake forecast six months in advance, the mission is designed to test beyond reasonable scientific doubt, whether or not the planets can be used to forecast large increases (above 6 magnitude or huge rises in frequency of 4.5 magnitude or greater) in earthquakes on a global level.
Over the last 100 years many have tried and failed to use planetary positions to predict earthquakes. Quakescanner Mission I has approached the problem from a very different angle. Rather than simply using the observed planet positions, QSM I models the displacement of space itself as a result of the planets moving through our local solar system. If QSM I is successful, it will have produced the worlds first statistically significant and scientifically acceptable long range earthquake forecast ever made. It should also shed new light on gravity research and open up research opportunities seeking to explain how the mechanics might operate. The Alpha-g experiment currently scheduled for 2018 at CERN for example is looking to observe microscopic changes in hydrogen anti matter as a result of gravity's influence. More on Alpha-g is available here (external link)
So..., the implications of a successful mission are very important because this would be the first acceptable scientific evidence that the planets are part of the earth climate ecosystem and therefore can justifiably be said to have an effect on earthquakes (even if the mechanism of 'how' is not understood fully).
What the mission is not trying to do:
The mission is not designed to predict earthquakes by location or indeed size etc. Until Mission I is completed and the results fully calculated, it would be premature to consider moving to that step. That said the mission is of course already looking at how the results so far might be able to assist in location determination, but other than future application consideration, it is not a part of the mission goal.
Mission Details:
Mission Start: AUGUST 01 2016 - 00:00:00 UTC
Mission End: JANUARY 31 2017 – 23:59:00 UTC
Mission Objective: 184 Day Long Range Earthquake Forecast Experiment
Mission Stats:
Realtime Mission Statistics Readout
The gauge above shows the latest updated statistics for the mission and is updated frequently. The large number is the number of major earthquakes since the mission start of August 2016. The detect rate shows number of days forecast exactly. A green coloured gauge indicated mission is currently within required 95% Confidence Interval range. If the gauge is orange or red then the forecast is falling below desired accuracy at this time. NB* whilst every effort is made to keep the realtime results both up to date and accurate errors and ommissions may be present and results subject to revision as earthquakes are reviewed or errors are rectified. The mission stats as therefore subject to change without notice.
On mission completion the final result is a p-Value of 0.0025 at >95% confidence.
The number of significant earthquakes forecast exactly was 45 out of 72 and over the 184 days, 113 days were forecast exactly
Statistics overview day 184
At day 184 (final day) of the mission the statistical results show that the mission has delivered the worlds first statistically accurate earthquake forecast using space-time distortion and planetary modelling. The table calculates several statistical metrics including Fisher Exact Test, Chi-Squared and Odds Risk / Risk Ratio. The Fisher exact test p-value in particular is often considered the 'gold standard' of statistical measurements. The 95% confidence target requires a p-value < 0.05. The Fisher exact test p-value finally attained was 0.0025, which is strongly within the margins for statistical significance.
Mission Technology:
The Quakescanner Mission I is a software model of the entire solar system. Using quantum simulations developed within the Toridion Project Quantum Computing Research Program in early 2015 peculiar signals and patterns were detected whilst processing observational data from over 100 years of Solar Activity (solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejections [CME] and solar sunspots).
Some of these signals matched many orbital periods of the planets of the solar system. This led to the deeper investigation of where the signals may have come from. After a year of development Quakescanner was built as an interface vehicle to the model, allowing the user to scan through over 100 years of solar system history looking for signals that matched up with serious earthquakes.
The image above is an example of software model readouts used to create earthquake forecasts. Upper right shows the predicted solar system tidal flows.
Mission Funding:
The Quakescanner Mission I project is entirely funded by sales of the Quakescanner App. The ultimate intention is to make the app free to everyone as a means to saving lives but currently this is just not practical without external funding. QSM I alone is a 6 month project requiring several hours every day * 184 days. Added to this is the 12 months building the application software. Making the app available for just $1 is a way for everyone who wants to contribute to the project to do so whilst at the same time getting access to some of the most advanced earthquake modelling software ever made, not to mention being a part of a cool experiment that is currently on track to change the way science looks at the fabric of space!
Click here to buy the app and support the mission
Download the latest project scientific papers and results
QS Publishes monthly advanced earthquake forecast on Youtube and on the QS Earthquake Blog page here. I will be moving all the project and mission data to this page as soon as possible, please bookmark and come back soon. In October forecasts switched to a new audio format for both forecasts and bulletins. These are all on Youtube as well as on here or the legacy Earthquake Blog page which has become a little cramped. I will move the AUgust -October forecasts here also as time allows.
